Thursday, July 26, 2012

Promoter's shares pledging at the highest since 2009

Pledging of shares by promoters of listed companies has reached its highest level since 2009, when it was made mandatory to disclose the encumbrance of shares by market regulator Sebi, a report has said.
According to an analysis of BSE-500 companies by ICICI Securities for the quarter ended March 2012, aggregate number of shares pledged as a percentage of those held by promoters rose to 10.4% from 9.4% a year ago.
his is the highest since 2009, when it became mandatory for firms to disclose the data. In December quarter, percentage of promoter holding pledged stood at 10.1%.
Experts believes promoters are forced to pledge shares with lenders in return for loans due to liquidity crunch.
“In the last 11 quarters, from the data available on pledged shares, we have been able to decipher that promoters have utilised pledging of shares to get loans on a regular basis. On an average, 8-10% of the promoter’s holding has been pledged during September 2009-March 2012,”
Companies such as Yash Papers, Zee News, Sri Adhikari Brothers and GTL have increased pledged shares between December quarter 2011 and March quarter 2012.
In contrast, firms including Tata Coffee, Adani Power, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers and Shree Renuka Sugar, saw a drop in percentage of stake pledged in the March quarter.
Interestingly, there were four companies, including Gujarat Pipavav Port and Thomas Cook (India), where owners have pledged their entire stake.
Promoters of another 13 companies such as billionaire Vijay Mallya’s United Spirits and real-estate developer Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL) have pledged more than 90% of their shares.
In terms of sector, companies in the oil and gas space have seen more than double the promoter shares being pledged in the March 2012 quarter as compared December quarter.
Real-Estate and power sectors too have seen a rise in the promoter shares being pledged, while banks and textile companies have been able to reduce the percentage of their promoter holdings being pledged.
“However except for the March quarter, the previous four quarters saw the BSE 500 index correcting 25%, resulting in an erosion of market capitalisation of stocks and the value of shares pledged for securing loans,” Pandey said.
“In such a scenario, companies that have taken loans against shares have to provide further margin in cash or pledge more securities to maintain the margin requirement. The companies that default may face the situation of selling of pledged shares by lenders resulting in a decline in stock prices and reduction in promoter holding,” he added.
In 2009, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had mandated companies to make disclosures of shares pledged by their promoters after every quarter.

Surprisingly, the list of companies where promoters have been steadily pledging their stake in recent times include some prominent A-category Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) listed companies like PV Ramprasad Reddy and Nithyanada Reddy promoted Aurobindo Pharma, GM Rao's GMR Infrastructure as well as politician L Rajagopal's Lanco Infratech.
This list also includes several B-category BSE-listed players like logistics company Gati Ltd promoted by Mahendra Agarwal, Gayatri Projects promoted by politician T Subbirami Reddy's family, Mic Electronics promoted by V Rao Maganti and in which Venkateswara Rao Daggubati and D Purandeswari are investors as well as Krebs Biochemicals in which Ranbaxy and Dr Reddy's Laboratories chairman K Anji Reddy and DRL managing director Satish Reddy are also investors, among others.
In some instances, like Gati and politician Y S Chowdhry promoted Sujana group companies, banks and FIs had even started invoking their pledged shares to make good the losses during the October-December 2011 quarter. According to estimates, over 120 Hyderabad-based companies are listed on the bourses.
In fact, a recent Crisil Research report on promoter pledging too had voiced concern over promoters of nearly one third of the 1,214 listed companies in India with market capitalization of over Rs 100 crore pledging a portion of their shareholding. Not surprisingly, this study contained the names of several Hyderabad-based companies like ICSA India, Andhra Cements, Gayatri Projects, GSS Infotech, Gati Ltd, Sanghi Industries, Viceroy Hotels that had over 80% promoter equity pledged.
Putting down the high volatility in the capital markets in 2011 to high domestic inflation, rising interest rates and tepid global economic environment, the Crisil report, based on data up to November 2011, had pointed out that promoters who had pledged a chunk of their stake run the risk of losing control over their companies and expose investors to higher share price volatility if they fail to meet payment schedules or provide additional collaterals to banks and FIs.
In fact, analysts point out that the woes of Hyderabad-based companies stem from a combination of high debt, falling share prices and over-ambitious promoters and with the dark clouds of the economic crisis not looking like clearing up anytime soon, highly pledged promoters and companies may be in for big trouble this year.
"Companies saddled with huge debts at high interest rates are feeling the heat especially as banks and financial institutions are turning cautious on lending money due to the current economic situation," explains independent consultant VS Vasudevan.
However, industry insiders point out how many Hyderabadbased promoters had over-leveraged their balance sheets and showed huge market capitalization so that they could raise more money from private equity investors, banks and even pledge their shares at higher prices. In most cases these promoters had successfully safeguarded their personal wealth.

"While some promoters pledged their stake to grow the business which is alright, there were others who raised money during the boom to play the markets or invest in realty or use the funds for other investments, but their strategy to either raise huge debt or pledge shares at higher prices has backfired due to the downturn and volatile markets," points out an analyst who tracks Hyderabad-based companies.
The falling share prices during the current fiscal forced promoters, who had pledged their stake, to top up their margins and when they failed to do so banks and financial institutions started selling off their shares to make good their losses, resulting in a major variation in promoter holding in last 2-3 quarters in some companies, analysts explain.
Adds investment consultant Hem Kumar: "Companies where substantial promoter equity is pledged and financial performance has decreased dramatically in the last couple of quarters will be the first ones to get hit and may find it extremely difficult to survive the downturn unless they are able to make a substantial improvement in performance."
"Though pledging of promoter stake is a routine activity in sectors that require a constant flow of funds such as infrastructure or in events like acquisitions where pledging of shares acts as a form of bridge financing, investors have to be cautious where the promoter pledging is done in stocks and sectors where there is no ostensible end use of such funds," cautions P Phani Sekhar, fund manager-portfolio management services, Angel Broking.
And while the Satyam scam may have forced market regulator Sebi to make it mandatory for promoter to disclose their pledged stakeholding, Hem Kumar feels it's time Sebi made these disclosure norms more stringent and also made it mandatory for companies to declare the status of debt so that investors and shareholders can better protect themselves.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

BUY CAIRN FUTURES ABOVE 321 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 318

WE RECOMMEND TO BUY CAIRN FUTURES ABOVE 321 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 318 FOR A TARGET OF 324.80, 326.80 AND 328.40.

BUY TATA MOTOR FUTURES NEAR 225 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 223

WE RECOMMEND TO BUY TATA MOTOR FUTURES NEAR 225 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 223 FOR A TARGET OF 228.80, 230.40 AND 231.80.

BUY TTK PRESTIGE FUTURES ABOVE 3520 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 3500

WE RECOMMEND TO BUY TTK PRESTIGE FUTURES ABOVE 3520 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 3500 FOR A TARGET OF 3548, 3563 AND 3588.

Thursday, July 05, 2012

BUY VIP FUTURES ABOVE 87 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 85.50

WE RECOMMEND TO BUY VIP FUTURES ABOVE 87 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 85.50 FOR A TARGET OF 88.80, 89.40 AND 89.80.

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Do you know, what is the most important aspect of successful futures trading?
 Is it identifying the trading opportunity?
 Is it proper entry into the market?
 Is it the trading “tools” you are using?
 Is it an exit strategy that is the most important aspect of trading?
The answer is: None of the above (although an exit strategy is close).
The most important factor in successful futures trading is money management. One still has to be savvy at chart forecasting and-or fundamental analysis, but it’s the money-management factor that will make or break a futures trader. The huge leverage involved with trading futures absolutely requires pinpoint money managing.
Surviving in the futures market absolutely requires practicing sound money management. Even a rookie trader who starts out with a hot hand will eventually find that at least some trades are not going to go his way. And if he has not employed good money- management principles on those losing trades, he will likely have squandered his trading profits and his entire trading account.
Conversely, the novice trader who uses good, conservative money management techniques will be able to withstand some losses and be able to trade another day. The ability to take a loss and trade another day is the key to survival–and ultimate success– in the futures trading arena.
Here’s an important point to consider, regarding money management and successful futures trading: Most successful futures traders will tell you that during the span of a year they have more losing trades than winning trades. Then why are they successful? It is because of good money management. Successful traders set tight stops to get out of losing positions quickly; and they let the winners ride out the trend. On the balance sheet, a few bigger winning trades will more than offset the more numerous smaller losers. Good money management allows for that to happen.
Here are just a few very general money-management guidelines:
 For smaller-capitalized traders, don’t commit more than one-third of your trading capital to one trade.
 For medium- and larger-capitalized traders, you should not commit more than 10% of your capital to one trade.
 The larger your trading account, the smaller your commitment should be to one trade. Smaller-capitalized traders, by necessity, have to commit a larger percentage of their capital to one trade.
 Use tight protective stops in all your trades. Cut your losses short and let the winners ride the trend.
 Never, never, never add to a losing position.
 Your risk-reward ratio in a futures trade should be at least three to one. In other words, if your risk of loss is Rs. 1,000, your profit potential should be at least Rs. 3,000.

Monday, July 02, 2012

BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS IN NIFTY CALL

ON 28.06.12 WE RECOMMENDED FOLLOWING STRATEGY:

BUY  NIFTY JULY 5200 CE @  94
SELL NIFTY JULY 5600 CE @   6

MAX. LOSS     =    88 PER LOT
MAX. PROFIT =  312 PER LOT.

RISK/REWARD RATIO: 1:3.54

WE NOW RECOMMEND THAT SHORT TERM TRADERS CAN BOOK 100% IN NIFTY CALL GIVEN BY US ON 28.06.12. CMP OF 5200 CE @ 166 AND 5600 CE @ 12.

NET PROFIT = 66 PER LOT. HOWEVER, RISKY TRADERS CAN EASILY CARRY THEIR POSITIONS.

BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS IN BANK NIFTY CALL

ON 28.06.12 WE RECOMMENDED FOLLOWING STRATEGY:


BUY  BANKNIFTY JULY 10000 CE @  294
SELL BANKNIFTY JULY 11000 CE @   26

MAX. LOSS     =  268 PER LOT
MAX. PROFIT =  732 PER LOT.

RISK/REWARD RATIO: 1:2.73


WE NOW RECOMMEND THAT SHORT TERM TRADERS CAN BOOK 100% IN BANK NIFTY CALL GIVEN BY US ON 28.06.12. CMP OF 10000 CE @ 535 AND 11000 CE @ 60.

NET PROFIT = 187 PER LOT. HOWEVER, RISKY TRADERS CAN EASILY CARRY THEIR POSITIONS.