Return of 500% in just 5 years.: August 07, 2011

Sunday, August 07, 2011

NIFTY LEVELS FROM YEAR 2000 TO YEAR 2017

WE HAVE GOT THE CHARTS FOR 12 YEARS WITH MAJOR LEVELS OF SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY. WE HAV SHARED THESE NIFTY LEVELS WITH OUR PERSONAL CLIENTS IN JAN'2008 WHEN NIFTY FALL IS ABOUT TO COME.
THIS IS HOW WE SEE NIFTY TILL 2017:

FEBRUARY 2000: 1982 RESISTANCE
APRIL 2003         : 920 SUPPORT
JANUARY 2004 : 2015 RESISTANCE
MAY 2004           : 1292 SUPPORT
MAY 2006           : 3774 RESISTANCE
JUNE 2006          : 2596 SUPPORT
JANUARY 2008 : 6350 RESISTANCE
OCTOBER 2008 : 2250 SUPPORT
JULY 2009          : 4500 RESISTANCE
WINTER 2009    : 3300 SUPPORT
WINTER 2010    : 6400 RESISTANCE
MAY 2011 : 5000 SUPPORT
JANUARY 2013 : 10900 RESISTANCE
MAY 2014    : 6400 SUPPORT
2016/2017 : 20200 RESISTANCE

THERE MAY BE SOME TIME VARIATION IN THOSE NIFTY LEVELS BUT THE VALUES R MORE OR LESS CERTAIN TO HAPPEN.

38 years cycle is the first business cycle in the history of global power. Usually the full cycle lasts for 240 years. However, the first cycle is extremely robust which propels the economy in new territory.After this cycle a massive crash can be expected but recovery will soon follow and second cycle will be much longer but economic growth rate will slow down compared to present.

This cycle of 38 years comes once in many centuries. Usually, this cycle propels the low or middle economy into next round of sustained growth. For INDIA it started form 1981 and will last till about 2020. Similar, 38 years cycles can be traced for other economies:

England: From 1868 to 1906.
USA : From 1891 to 1929
Japan: From 1951 to 1989
India: From 1981 to 2020

Markets just looks for an excuse to rise or fall. Government may come and go but Nifty targets for next 12 years are pre-determined and almost certain to happen. So are Dow Jones level which may touch 39000 in 12 years time in line with Nifty Levels. HAPPY INVESTING!

NIFTY RALLY FROM 2008 TO 2010 BASED ON ELLIOT WAVE - (POSTED ON 12.02.11)

ON 12.02.11 WE HAD POSTED THAT ON WEEKLY CHARTS WE R NOW GIVING THE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS WHICH STARTED WITH WAVE-1 FROM A LOW OF 2539.45 ON 08.03.2009 TO A HIGH OF 4693.20 ON 14.06.09, WAVE-2 THEN ENDS AT A LOW OF 3918.75 ON 19.07.2009, WAVE-3 MADE AN INTERMEDIATE HIGH AT 6338.50 ON 07.11.2010.

WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT NIFTY SHOULD NOT BREAK THE LEVEL OF 5000. EVERY ANALYIST ON THE STREET IS EXTREMELY BEARISH AT PRESENT, AS THEY WERE BULLISH WHEN NIFTY WAS AT 6300.

WE BELIEVE THAT WE R IN WAVE-3 WHICH SHOULD PEAK AROUND 7500 LEVELS.

(WE HAVE POSTED THE AFORESAID ANALYSIS ON 12.02.11 AND OUR LOWER TARGET OF 5000 IS HOLDING SINCE LAST 6MONTHS WHEREAS ALL THE ANALYIST ON THE STREET WERE BEARISH IN FEB'2011 AND WERE GIVING DOWNSIDE TARGETS OF EVEN 4000 IN THE COMING MONTHS. WE HOPE OUR UPWARDS ALSO MEET IN THE COMING MONTHS)

NIFTY RALLY FROM 2003 TO 2008 BASED ON ELLIOT WAVE - (POSTED ON 12.02.11)

WE HAVE GIVEN THE COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE BULL RALLY FROM 2003 TO 2008. CHART OF WAVE-1, WAVE-2, WAVE-3, WAVE-4, WAVE-5 R ENCLOSED FOR UR CONVENIENCE. CLICK ON THE CHARTS AND SEE THE DETAILS.

ON WEEKLY CHARTS WAVE-1 STARTED FROM A LOW OF 920 ON 04.05.2003 TO A HIGH OF 2014.65 ON 11.01.04, WAVE-2 ENDS AT A LOW ON 23.05.2004 OF 1292.20, WAVE-3 ENDS WITH A HIGH OF 3774.15 ON 14.05.2006, WAVE-4 ENDS AT A LOW OF 2595.65 ON 18.06.2006, WAVE-5 THEN ENDS AT A HIGH OF 6357.10 ON 13.01.2008. THEN CORRECTIVE WAVE OF A,B,C, STARTED WHICH ENDS AT 2252.75 ON 02.11.2008.

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Trading in stock market is very risky. Please analyze yourself what is your risk profile. This blog is not perfect. This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this blog” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in this blog.

The author is not a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and that you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments

SGRG – SIP: BE THE MASTER OF YOUR OWN DESTINY

Welcome to the World of S.I.P. (Systematic investment Plan).

Thanks to the massive amount of time, money and efforts put in by the Mutual Fund Industry over the years, investors are now very much aware of this technique of investing.

Lets revisit the logic of SIP. We call it SGRG-SIP.

In a SIP you invest a fixed sum at a particular interval ( say a month) over a given period of time. In SGRG-SIP, instead of choosing a regular MF scheme, we decide an Index Benchmark, which can be NIFTYBEeS, JUNIORBEeS, GOLDBeS, BANKBEeS depending upon your risk profile.

Disciplined Approach

The first benefit of a SGRG-SIP is that you imbibe discipline in your investments. On a given date of every month you buy the pre-decided index Benchmark. However, the amount to be invested every month keeps on changing i.e. It will be communicated by us every month. You don’t really apply your mind whether to buy or not. Just go ahead and do it.

Don’t worry about the timing

Let me choose the worst possible month in recent history – January 2008 I Hope everybody remember this month.

So we baptize you with fire, by making you begin investing from 26^th December, 2007, a sum of Rs 25,000 every month on the last day of the month. This you religiously do every month for 36 months i.e. 25^th Decemeber, 2010.

Lets see how the Nifty faired. The Nifty that was 6070 on 26^th December 2007 closed on December 26^th 2010 at 6013. This is a fall of 0.94%. And say you like Reliance a lot. The price of Reliance on 01.01.08 was 1445 and on 01.03.12 it was 811 down -43.80% over a period of 3 years.

But our’s SGRG-SIP in Index benchmark’s actually gave A WHOPPING Annualised Return of over 50% p.a. during the same period.

What we mean to say is since, we cannot track the working and performance of each and every scrip, when you fundamentally like a stock, you should like the stock more if the price falls, other things being same. But human psychology will ensure that you get jitters when the price falls. And expecting that the price will fall further you don’t buy. A further fall in price will validate your fears and you would wait for a still larger dip. One fine day the stock will bounce back, leaving you in a frown.

But a SGRG-SIP will ensure that your fear does not come in the way of your investment. This ability of SGRG-SIP to systematically buy Index Benchmarks at all levels ensures good returns in a volatile market. So honour the sanctity of a SIP.

Power of Compounding

The power of compounding will ensure that even small investments in early part of life will leave a giant footprint over a longer period of time. You don’t really have to save big. The stress is not on the amount, but on the need to start early. And even if you have lost considerable time, don’t worry. Today is a good day to begin ! Let us also dispel a myth that SGRG-SIP is only for beginners or for small investors. Nothing stops you from allocating even large sums for SGRG-SIP. In fact experienced investors would find it more useful.

SOME REAL FACTS ABOUT SGRG–SIP

PRICE	S&P	JUNIOR	BANK	GOLD	SILVER
	NIFTY	NIFTY	NIFTY	SPOT	SPOT
01.01.05	4484	2080	3531	6301	10415
01.12.10	9095	5871	11988	29035	55900
% P.A.	15%	26%	34%	52%	62%
SGRG %P.A.	58%	399%	679%	1201%	10000%

Here are some real facts about our SGRG – SIP. We have compared the prices of some of the Indexes and Top Commodities in the World market since 1^st Januray, 2005. Here also you will appreciate that SGRG –SIP outforms all the asset class mentioned below by 100% at least.

Be the master of your own fortunes.Write your own success story. Choose your own Index Benchmark, which you will be investing over a period of time. Since your returns will be function of what asset class you choose, ensure that you put in serious efforts in terms of understanding what you are investing in. Ensure that the Index Benchmark you choose match your risk stance and return expectations.